# Fall Frenzy rating formula

This is an uncalibrated ordering heuristic, not a probability or official ranking. Current 2027 public team aggregates only. All predictions low confidence.

Final score = .18 C + .20 R + .22 S + .18 Q + .10 K + .06 D + .06 F, rounded to one decimal. No source-confidence multiplier. No-game records are excluded from performance calculations, not treated as losses. Missing component evidence is handled as described below.

- C: arithmetic mean of recognized current circuit classes (Major/Maj/D1=100; AAA/D2=72; AA/D3=48). Unknown class defaults 60. Add 14*(entrant age-12), clamp to [20,100]. All current entrants are 12U.
- Opponent strength A: class value/100 + .14*(opponent age-12), clamped [.2,1.25]. This recognizes USSSA Maj as Major.
- Record percentage P(g): (wins + .5*ties + .5*g)/(wins+losses+ties+g). Use g=8 for results, g=4 for quality and recency.
- R: weighted mean of each circuit overall P(8)*100. PG/USSSA source weight 1, NCS .8; multiply each by .45+.55*min(1,games/24). If no played sample, R=50. No circuit game totals are summed as unique games.
- S: game-count-weighted mean of A*100 across posted opponent-class records. If none, S=.85*C (classification prior, not measured schedule).
- Q: game-count-weighted mean of P(4)*100*(.7+.3*A) across opponent-class records. If none, Q=R.
- K: arithmetic mean of available positive indicators: USSSA power value min(100,value/14), state power rank max(15,100-rank*2.2), national power rank max(10,100-rank/8); NCS ranking points min(100,points/22). Zero/missing indicators omitted; K=50 if none. Ranking scales differ across circuits, so this remains a low-weight heuristic.
- D: NCS average run differential mapped to clamp(50+6*differential,0,100); no NCS played sample means neutral 50.
- F: mean of P(4)*100 from posted played last-10 records in each circuit. If none, F=R.

Sources remain separate. Game-level cross-circuit deduplication has not been performed; component evidence can be correlated. PG All State American and CalNeva Crew have class/neutral-prior scores rather than demonstrated performance. Accepted-only MVP is excluded from the nine-team ranking. Download fall-frenzy-sources.json for facts and computed components.